Nigeria Marks 20 Years Without Census as Population Data Gap Raises Development Concerns

Twenty years after conducting its last national population and housing census, Nigeria remains one of the world’s largest countries without an updated official count of its population.

As preparations gradually build toward the 2027 general elections, the long-delayed census exercise remains uncertain, leaving government institutions, investors, development agencies and citizens relying largely on projections instead of verified demographic data.

Nigeria’s most recent census took place in 2006, and despite repeated commitments from successive administrations, a new nationwide headcount has yet to happen.

At the centre of the process is the National Population Commission (NPC), the constitutionally recognised agency responsible for conducting the census.

According to official statements previously released by the commission and reported by multiple Nigerian media organisations, delays have largely been linked to funding constraints, insecurity, logistics and political considerations.

Population figures in Nigeria extend beyond statistics. They influence government planning, infrastructure development, legislative representation, constituency boundaries and public resource distribution.

Without updated data, major national decisions increasingly depend on demographic estimates.

International projections continue to place Nigeria’s population above 230 million, with estimates from institutions such as the United Nations suggesting the country remains Africa’s most populous nation. However, the absence of an official census means exact figures remain uncertain.

The challenge becomes more visible in fast-growing cities including Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Onitsha, where infrastructure expansion often struggles to match population growth.

Significant public resources have already gone into preparations.

Under the previous administration, government approvals reportedly reached approximately ₦800 billion for census preparation, while about ₦224 billion was released to the NPC, according to disclosures made by former NPC Chairman, Nasir Isa Kwarra.

Kwarra also stated publicly that nearly ₦200 billion had already been utilised, including procurement of more than 760,000 digital devices intended to support a fully digital population count.

Speaking previously on delays, he warned that prolonged postponement could create operational risks.

“If you don't use the equipment and the batteries go down, we risk losing many of these facilities.”

The census had initially been planned for 2023 before being postponed indefinitely.

President Bola Tinubu later reaffirmed government commitment to conducting a credible and technology-driven census.

During the inauguration of the National Coordination Committee for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics and launch of the National Geospatial Data Repository, the President stated:

“The population remains the greatest asset of the nation in the development process.”

In April 2025, the administration further established a presidential review committee to assess readiness for the exercise.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed NPC Chairman, Dr. Aminu Yusuf, has maintained that preparations remain largely complete and that implementation now depends on presidential proclamation.

For most countries, census exercises are routine administrative activities.

In Nigeria, however, they carry broader implications because population figures shape political representation, fiscal distribution and long-term economic planning.

The absence of updated demographic data affects decisions on education, healthcare, housing, transport and public services.

Questions such as how many schools should be built, where hospitals are needed, or how infrastructure should be expanded become harder to answer accurately without reliable population records.

With the proposed ₦12.78 billion allocation to the NPC in the 2026 budget, expectations have risen that Nigeria could finally conduct its next census.

However, analysts continue to caution that organising a national headcount too close to the 2027 election period may introduce political and administrative pressures.

After two decades without a national census, Nigeria faces increasing pressure to move from estimates to evidence-based planning.

While government officials continue to promise a transparent and digital process, the timing of the exercise may prove as important as the census itself.

For a country seeking stronger economic planning and better public service delivery, counting its people remains one of the most important unfinished national assignments.